2023 Weather Thread

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Oct 02, 2023 5:30 pm

I can just say I'm sooo ready for this cool down. Looks like we could see some areas of frost Saturday morning. Forecast low is 38 from KETV, WOWT, and the NWS. Some lower lying areas could get lower, and frost could occur. Something to keep an eye on. It would be right on time.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 3:18 pm

Based on the 12z HRRR, there still "might" be a few isolated showers/storms in the Omaha area late this morning/early afternoon but it looks like most of it will stay west and north of here.

Then the primary stuff will move in late this afternoon and evening before the front pushes through. Most of the severe weather should remain in central parts of Nebraska but a few isolated strong/severe storms will be possible here as well. Damaging wind/hail will be the main risks (with additionally at least some tornado threat in central parts of NE).

Hopefully some much needed rain at least though the heaviest stuff may end up passing west/north of us.

Simulated radar based on the 12z HRRR:

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 3:29 pm

Based on radar currently, there are storms developing and heading up this way from near Beatrice/Fairbury and into KS so it seems fairly likely those will move into the west metro area early this afternoon - assuming they hold together anyway.

Current Radar as of ~10:25 AM:

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 4:45 pm

At least here in Bellevue we are getting in on the early rain....it is pouring really hard right now.

Edit: I got .40" from that, so I am happy with that. Hopefully another 1/2" or more later tonight.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 5:18 pm

Yeah a good burst moving into much of Omaha from the southwest now…

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 5:39 pm

Got me halfway through my lunchtime walk. I'm not made of sugar, so I didn't melt...

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 6:07 pm

Radar looks like we'll be getting a really solid run of rain over the next hour or so at least.

thenewguy · Post by **thenewguy** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 6:17 pm

idk about rain amount near gretna, but rainin pretty good for a while. Surprised to see it come in so early and so heavy at times

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 7:35 pm

I'm not surprised I guess. Yesterday I mentioned the potential for an early round during the late morning or early afternoon. This morning the model runs showed less potential with that but I'm glad it ultimately happened - we need the rain

thenewguy · Post by **thenewguy** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 7:40 pm

oh, for sure. and by no means am i throwing any shade your way- pretty much all forecasts i had seen were pointing towards evening rain and storms; i'm glad it started sooner, maybe we'll end up with more out of it and cooler temps sooner!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 7:54 pm

thenewguy wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 7:40 pm oh, for sure. and by no means am i throwing any shade your way- pretty much all forecasts i had seen were pointing towards evening rain and storms; i'm glad it started sooner, maybe we'll end up with more out of it and cooler temps sooner!

Definitely. Looking like the main round later tonight (probably after 10 PM) may end up being more intense too with damaging wind potential if the 18z HRRR verifies anyway...

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 8:04 pm

stormchaser wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 7:54 pm
thenewguy wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 7:40 pm oh, for sure. and by no means am i throwing any shade your way- pretty much all forecasts i had seen were pointing towards evening rain and storms; i'm glad it started sooner, maybe we'll end up with more out of it and cooler temps sooner!
Definitely. Looking like the main round later tonight (probably after 10 PM) may end up being more intense too with damaging wind potential if the 18z HRRR verifies anyway...

Very interested to see how the second round pans out with how beneficial this first round has been/was.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 8:25 pm

Pretty hard to believe it'll get much warmer today. My current reading is 68. Maybe it'll end up being a stronger cold front.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 9:38 pm

Things should clear out here shortly and help destabilize the atmosphere at least some for later. Biggest question at this point is to what extent. Will it be enough for severe weather here tonight? Certainly possible anyway...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 9:45 pm

Visible satellite loop as of ~4:45 PM showing the clearing moving into our area from the west and then the big storms behind that.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 9:52 pm

Mesoscale discussion out for just barely west of Omaha - watch likely will be issued soon.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2220.html

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 9:55 pm

And the sun is out. That bodes well for more rain/storms, right?

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 10:25 pm

Mother nature fooled me again, it's heated right up.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 10:40 pm

Louie wrote: Tue Oct 03, 2023 9:55 pm And the sun is out. That bodes well for more rain/storms, right?

Yep, just a matter if it destabilizes enough for severe weather here. We should get rain/storms though either way.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 03, 2023 11:23 pm

If this line of storms that’s bowing out near Hastings holds together, heads up in Lincoln/Omaha in a few hours. Widespread damaging wind possible. I think odds are increasing they will hold together and cause severe weather locally but only time will tell.

Radar as of 6:20 PM

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:30 am

Tornado warning west of Wahoo. This is a strong line with 70mph+ winds…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:44 am

Radar indications are starting to show the storms slowly weakening (as they move into areas that didn’t have as much time to destabilize after the earlier rain).

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next hour or 2. I’d suspect western Douglas county has a chance at some severe weather. Omaha itself “might” but it’ll be close. Some relatively strong storms if not severe level locally.

Many of these warnings will probably start expiring soon though based on radar trends over the last 20 minutes or so…

ShawJ · Post by **ShawJ** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:49 am

Any thoughts on the Blair area? As always, thanks for all your storm input!

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:01 am

ShawJ wrote: Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:49 am Any thoughts on the Blair area? As always, thanks for all your storm input!

No problem! Similar to Omaha. Storms “might” barely hang on to severe weather criteria as they move into Blair but there is a general weakening trend so don’t be surprised if warnings are soon dropped. Strong storms though regardless.

North of Blair there is a better damaging wind threat though where the storms are bowing out.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:30 am

For reference, this is what I mean by a weakening trend.

Look at the beginning of the radar loop below. Notice how the leading edge of the line of storms is sharp/crisp. Then it transitions into ragged with many additional storms developing ahead of the line. In this case anyway, it means the line of storms is starting to collapse and the outflow (rain cooled air) is being pushed out ahead of the line as a result (which causes new storms to fire but slowly kills off the original line).

This is typically what happens when storms move into more stable air (which we have due to the earlier rain).

Long story short, the severe threat is nearly over now…

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 2:17 am

Pretty decent rains today. We really needed it. I'm thinking at least an inch at my place, possibly more.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 12:54 pm

Definitely needed the rain..

Only tough thing for me, is I’m in the midst of having my house painted; and yesterday put the crew behind a day..

Oh well…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

thenewguy · Post by **thenewguy** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:52 pm

i didn't see anything on the news, did they confirm that tornado?

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 2:00 pm

I received .90" in Bellevue from both the morning and evening storms.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 2:07 pm

Based on radar estimates, most areas in Omaha saw 1"-2" rain totals. Areas of northwest Omaha saw the most (some places more than 2" worth). Southeast areas (like Bellevue) saw the least...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 2:10 pm

thenewguy wrote: Wed Oct 04, 2023 1:52 pm i didn't see anything on the news, did they confirm that tornado?

Nothing confirmed. Based on radar, it looked pretty outflowy which makes me think someone saw some low hanging scud and assumed tornado/funnel (who knows though).

Only confirmed tornadoes yesterday were in KS. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/231003_rpts.html

Post by **BRoss** » Wed Oct 04, 2023 6:29 pm

stormchaser wrote: Wed Oct 04, 2023 2:07 pm Based on radar estimates, most areas in Omaha saw 1"-2" rain totals. Areas of northwest Omaha saw the most (some places more than 2" worth). Southeast areas (like Bellevue) saw the least...

1.71" out around 156th & Dodge

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Oct 05, 2023 6:04 pm

It sounds more and more with each passing forecast that we're pretty likely we could get down to 32 tomorrow night/Saturday morning. Even if Eppley itself doesn't, I bet certain areas around the metro could easily get down to freezing. I'm not so sure plant's like tomatoes and peppers will make it through. This would be about a week early if we do get a freeze.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Oct 05, 2023 6:37 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Oct 05, 2023 6:04 pm It sounds more and more with each passing forecast that we're pretty likely we could get down to 32 tomorrow night/Saturday morning. Even if Eppley itself doesn't, I bet certain areas around the metro could easily get down to freezing. I'm not so sure plant's like tomatoes and peppers will make it through. This would be about a week early if we do get a freeze.

Yeah, probably a hard freeze (in the mid to upper 20s) in parts of central Nebraska this weekend. Here, probably not as cold but possibly temps at or near freezing anyway.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:23 pm

I’m looking forward to seeing the Mosquito population finally killed off for good this year Friday night/Saturday early AM..if we dip down below 40 degrees. It’ll be a pleasure to sit and enjoy nice Fall evenings outdoors without those biting pests…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

thenewguy · Post by **thenewguy** » Thu Oct 05, 2023 8:28 pm

i didn't realize mosquitos struggle even when it gets down to 50. This quick bit of cold should really help knock em dead

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Oct 05, 2023 9:41 pm

I hope so. My understanding is if we hit below 40 for a low (we’re forecasted to hit a low in the 36-38 degree range early AM Saturday) Mosquitoes are toast…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Oct 06, 2023 1:47 am

I never noticed many mosquitos this year or last, but yeah, it'll be nice for all bugs to die or go dormant. That's another thing I don't think much about with the first freeze. It should help with pollen too. It's just my favorite time of year

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Oct 06, 2023 3:44 pm

Any guesses on when we will receive our first snowfall in the Omaha metro this year?

For what it's worth, both long range models are hinting at "maybe" some snow in the western parts of Nebraska next Thursday/Friday (October 12/13). Obviously a long way out but since both long range models show it, odds are at least somewhat higher.

Then the 06z GFS shows possibly flakes/flurries in parts of eastern Nebraska off in "la-la-land" about a week after that (roughly October 20th). This, of course, has nearly zero chance of actually happening since it's so far out and on the 06z run but interesting to watch anyway.

My guess/prediction for Omaha itself:
We will see our first flakes/flurries October 29th and our first "accumulating" snowfall (an inch or more - none of this just a dusting stuff

) on November 10th.

What's your guess/prediction (for the fun of it of course)?

thenewguy · Post by **thenewguy** » Fri Oct 06, 2023 6:36 pm

I have no meteorological background other than a class I took once, but it feels like we could see some early snow, get our hopes up, then nothing for a while, And juuuuuust about when we are ready for it to be spring and get warm again, we are going to get dumped on with March snows.